本文摘要：You have twade through thick paragraphs of wheedling, flattery, product assessment and unabashed self-aggrandizement tget there, but buried in Carl Icahn’s rambling 4,200-word “letter tTim Cook” is his justification for the highest Apple p

You have twade through thick paragraphs of wheedling, flattery, product assessment and unabashed self-aggrandizement tget there, but buried in Carl Icahn’s rambling 4,200-word “letter tTim Cook” is his justification for the highest Apple price target on Wall Street — nearly twice the current consensus.卡尔·伊坎在长达4,200字的《致蒂姆o库克的一封信》中，说明了他为什么给苹果（Apple）估出了目前整个华尔街最低的目标股价——完全是当下股价的两倍。尽管你得耐热着性子读过大段的甜言蜜语、逢迎亲近、产品评估和从不害臊的自我炫耀之后，才能了解到这一点。His argument takes some wild leaps — he likes tcompare P/Es in the hand with P/Es in the bush — but the math is there for anyone tsee: (I quote)他的阐述十分冲刺——他讨厌较为当下和预期的市盈率（P/E）——不过其他人都可以想到他的计算方法：（提到如下）Apple, adjusting for net cash, currently sells at a P/E (price tearnings per share ratio) of only 8x our FY 2015 forecast, a significantly lower P/E than a broad market index, the SP 500, which trades today at a P/E of 15x FY 2015 consensus.In contrast tthe SP 500’s slower growth, we expect Apple tgrow its EPS by 30% in each of FY 2016 and FY 2017.在经过净现金值调整后，根据我们对苹果2015年的每股收益预期，公司股票目前的市盈率（股价与每股收益之间的比值）只有8倍，相比之下高于大盘指数的整体水平——根据市场对2015年的平局预期，标普500指数目前的市盈率超过15倍。相比于标普500指数的较慢快速增长，我们预计苹果的每股收益将在2016财年和2017财年分别下跌30%。

Our forecasted growth for FY 2016 and FY 2017 more than adequately justifies using a P/E multiple of 19x our FY 2015 forecast, which along with net cash values Apple at $203 per share today.对2016和2017财年的快速增长预期让我们有充份的理由来用于基于2015年预期值19倍的市盈率来估计苹果股价，综合净现金值考虑到之后可以获得苹果目前的合理股价应当超过203美元。The literary device of a “letter” tCook breaks down pretty quickly. Apple’s CEdoesn’t need tbe told how great Apple’s products are. Or how “flawed and fragmented” Google’s Android.The literary device of a “letter” tCook breaks down pretty quickly. Apple’s CEdoesn’t need tbe told how great Apple’s products are. Or how “flawed and fragmented” Google’s Android.从文学手法来说，这封致库克的公开信迅速就跑题了。

苹果的首席执行官不必须听得伊坎再行唠叨一遍苹果的产品有多么杰出，或是谷歌（Google）安卓系统的生态环境有多么“碎裂支离”。What alsbreaks down is the logic of his pitch to Apple’s board of directors for a massive tender offer trepurchase shares.某种程度无颇逻辑的，是他对苹果董事会明确提出的大批买入股票的拒绝。According tIcahn, self interest will soon force mutual funds tpour money back intApple. But if that’s inevitable, why would the company need tenlarge what is already the largest share buyback in the history of capitalism?根据伊坎所述，在自身利益的抗拒下，他迅速就不会呼吁投资公司把钱投放苹果。

不过如果这是不可避免的，苹果为何还要不断扩大早已是公司历史上仅次于的股票买入规模？No, this isn’t a letter tTim Cook at all. It’s a letter tinvestors, telling them tbuy Apple before it’s tolate.所以，这并不是一份给蒂姆o库克的信，而是一封给投资者的信，告诉他他们要尽早出售苹果的股票。

本文来源：南宫28圈官网-www.kubernetek.com